I spotted this as my favorite bet for
UFC 121 as soon as I saw the line (which was too late to get the opener, unfortunately). On 5dimes, Schaub actually opened at +180, which is ridiculous value. I feel fortunate to have gotten him at +155. His line is now down to +130 on 5dimes, +135 on Bookmaker.
At first glance it may seem like a strange pick. Why is all this money coming in on Schaub, who has just a 2-1
UFC record and only seven
MMA fights in total, when he is up against a former
UFC title contender in Gonzaga? How could Schaub, who has ony been fighting professionally for two years, be such a small underdog against a beast of a man who has been fighting professionally for seven years and competing in elite jiu-jitsu tournaments for at least a decade? Not only is Gonzaga a former jiu-jitsu World Champion, he also kicked Cro-Cop's head off at a time when Cro-Cop was still one of the most feared heavyweights in the world. How is Schaub, whose only top-level opponent was Roy Nelson -- a fight in which Schaub was KO'd in the first round -- going to handle a seasoned
UFC vet who has battled (albeit without much success) the likes of Cro-Cop, Randy Couture for the title, Fabricio Werdum (twice), Shane Carwin, and Junior dos Santos? Gonzaga's five losses to date are against the elite of the elite, and Brendan Schaub's name certainly does not belong in their company at this early stage in his career.
And yet, despite all this, I am choosing Schaub as the best underdog bet on the card. In fact I think he should be the clear favorite in this matchup.
Styles make fights, and Schaub presents a very unfortunate stylistic matchup for Gonzaga. Following his highlight reel KO of Cro-Cop -- a result which made Gonzaga overvalued in every betting line since -- Gonzaga had seven more
UFC fights, winning three and losing four. Let's look at Gonzaga's last three wins:
Chris Tuscherer: wrestler without dangerous standup
Josh Hendricks: wrestler without dangerous standup
Justin McCully: inferior grappler without dangerous standup
And prior to his win over Cro-Cop, his remaining
UFC wins were:
Carmelo Marrero: wrestler without dangerous standup
Fabricio Scherner: inferior grappler without dangerous standup
Kevin Jordan: Luckily I haven't seen any other Kevin Jordan fights besides his fight with Gonzaga, but from what I saw the description "a scrub with a 60 second gas tank" seems apt.
Aside from the Cro-Cop win, which people read WAY too much into (the headkick win over a top striker was one of those outlier results that cannot be anticipated and is unlikely to be repeated), Gonzaga has never defeated anyone with dangerous striking. Now let's look at Gonzaga's last two
UFC losses, since they are most relevant to this matchup:
Junior dos Santos: a very dangerous striker, possibly the best heavyweight striker in the
UFC. Gonzaga was KO'd in the first round.
Shane Carwin: a heavy-handed wrestler who is known for his one-punch knockout power. Gonzaga was KO'd in the first round.
Of course, I am not comparing Schaub's boxing skills to those of dos Santos. Nor am I saying he has the power of Shane Carwin. But the fact remains that Brendan Schaub is a talented and powerful striker, with all six of his wins coming by way of first round TKO/KO. It is generally agreed that if the fight stays standing, which I believe it will, then it favors Schaub. Contrary to some myths, Gonzaga is not a very good striker. Perhaps he himself draws too much confidence from the fact that he KO'd Cro-Cop, but that confidence must be somewhat shattered on the heels of two devastating knockout losses. (Schaub, by contrast, is coming into this fight with the momentum of two successive 1st round KO wins, big confidence boosters.) Gonzaga hits hard but he is slow and lumbering, has poor head movement and equally poor reactions. He needs time to set up his shots and is not a skilled counter-striker by any means.
Schaub, by contrast, is a phenomenal athlete. The former
football player prides himself on his conditioning and claims to be the hardest worker in the
UFC. He trains with what many consider the best fight team in the world, Jackson's Submission Fighting in Albuquerque, alongside his best friend Shane Carwin. From all we have seen on The Ultimate Fighter and his
UFC fights, his footwork is swift and his punching, kicking, and counterstriking are all on point. He still lacks good head movement, in my opinion, but it's an area he has been working on. He is very fast and has used his speed to dismantle two big, slow grapplers in a combined 1:54 in his last two
UFC fights. He has an excellent jab that he uses to keep his opponents at bay and when he sees that he has his opponent's hurt, he has a Liddellesque killer mentality.
Gonzaga tends to fold when the fight doesn't go his way. Against Couture and Carwin, any early success he may have enjoyed was immediately negated when the fight turned against him. He crumbles. He does not have the fighter's mentality. By contrast, we have seen Schaub overcome adversity on TUF where in a couple fights he was losing in the early stages but showed strong will to come back and win. I have never seen Gonzaga win a fight after getting hurt. Schaub will hurt him. As Mike Tyson says, "speed kills" more than power. With Schaub's superior quickness and striking, it's not a question of if but when he connects. He will tag Gonzaga, and I don't believe Gonzaga has the heart to come back from that.
Gonzaga's gas tank has always been questionable, and as this fight goes deeper it can only favor Schaub. Schaub to win in round 3 is currently at +1400 on 5dimes, and I see tremendous value in that line.
Finally, it must be mentioned that although Gonzaga has world-class jiu-jitsu, he has never been a good wrestler and I believe he is just far too slow to get his hands on Schaub. Schaub has been fighting good wrestlers since his time on TUF, and he has been preparing for good wrestlers for each of his three
UFC fights to date. His takedown defense is underrated, in my opinion, and even if he is taken down it's comforting to know that Gonzaga is not a lay 'n pray wrestler who will seek to just hold him down. Gonzaga would go for submissions, but if they fail Schaub would be right back up to his feet. If Gonzaga does get any takedowns I'm confident it would be in the first round only, as he will be too tired after round 1 to take down an athlete with Schaub's conditioning and quick movement. But I don't believe he'll manage a single takedown, especially since he has shown a misguided propensity to stand and trade with opponents after he KO'd Cro-Cop. Schaub is going to stick and move in the first round and win via knockout (yet again) in the second or third.
Schaub +130 (the line was nicer earlier, but this is still great value), Schaub inside the distance +160, and Schaub wins in round 3 +1400 are all great bets. This bet will hit. I'll eat my hat if it doesn't. Good luck
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