Jacques

[jacques]

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is suffering from something similar the Titans are also having: they are being completely underrated by the public and the fact they are just -1 on this game means without the traditional home advantage (-3 points), the Falcons would actually be an underdog this week. Atlanta has been on-fire at home this season by going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS, while New Orleans is still winless on the road this season (losses to Washington, Denver and Carolina).
If you remember, the Falcons had an amazing performance last season at Oakland, where they completely shutdown the Raiders by having more than 300 total yards at halftime, while the Raiders had negative yards (-2)! And that will be the key for this game. The Falcons is well balanced and has a great defense, something the Saints lack. And as much their QB star Drew Brees can do, the team can't defend and they pay the price for that. I remember the Saints have allowed more than 30 points in three of their last four games and five of their last seven games!
The Falcons have lost their two games against the Saints last season, but this season with QB Matt Ryan they are a much better team and they will be looking revenge this week. With them being just a marginal favorite on this week, I think we have great value in Atlanta. Take Atlanta in here.
Atlanta Falcons (-1) @1.91 on Pinnacle

Stawka 5/10

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
These two teams will see their strongest parts of their game be opposed by the weakest parts of their opponents today and when that happens, the offense of both teams will have a great shot of being effective today and that's what I expect in here. The Packers have failed to slow down every opponent with a capable running offense and they have allowed 187, 219, 178, 176, 113 and 178 rushing yards this season. They have only been able to stop the rushing offense of Detroit (49 yards) and Indianapolis (73 yards), easily the league's worst running offenses.
On this game they will face the Vikings of Adrian Peterson, who is coming to this game with a three game sequence always having more than 100 yards and he will cause a lot of problems to the Packers today. Besides that, QB Gus Frerrote is getting more adapted to the team and he has thrown 5 TD passes in their last two games, leading the team to 69 points. Bernard Berrian is a downfield threat and together with Peterson, the Vikings will have a capable offense.
On the other side, the Packers are coming from a very physical and tough game against the Titans, which went to overtime. Naturally, as they were facing one of the best defensive teams of the league, the Packers and Aaron Rodgers struggled on that game, but today the scenario will be much different. The pass defense of the Vikings is the weakest part of the team and it can't be compared to the one of the Titans. But that area has become even more problematic for the Vikings this season, when star pass rusher Jared Allen is expected to miss the game with a shoulder injury. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver had 215 yards last week and they have conditions to do even better this season. Green Bay is 10-2 Over after one or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. I expect an high scoring game in here. Take the over.
Over 44,5 @1.98 on Pinnacle

Stawka 5/10
Oba typki z płatnych serwisów amerykańskich wartych troszkę $ ;-)

 

[rty007]

nie wiem czy powinienem, ale skomentuje... że nareszcie cos z poza sztampy: pilka, pilka, pilka ???? ew kosz ????

 

[jacques]

Obydwa typki weszły. Prawie 10 unitsów zysku ... Dobry jednak jest koleś, szkoda że sam nie grałem

 

[jacques]

New York Jets @ New England Patriots
The Jets are in a good moment right now, with 3-0 on their last 3 games and the impression that I have is that the team is improving and becoming better game after game and that's especially important to understand that this team is better than the one who faced the Patriots on week 2. When that happens and the team has revenge, then the spot becomes very strong and the Jets are today in a very favorable position, especially when they dogs in this game, as it only gives them more value. I remember one trend that I've found: teams, who are revenging a home loss against an opponent, are 22-4 on the last 10 seasons in games involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season.
I've also have to refer that these two teams had a short week for this game and they will come to it in different conditions. While the Jets have easily defeated the Rams by 47-3 and so, they could save some energies for this game, the Patriots had a divisional game against the Bills, which was surely much harder and more tiring than the game of the Jets. Adalius Thomas is the new player on the injury list of the Pats and he will be missed much more than most people may think he will. Thomas was able to rush and drop back into coverage, and his size meant the Pats were covered against the run in the nickel. It will be impossible for one player to replace him. I remember he was the team's leader in terms of sacks with 5 until now. Matt Cassel has been better and he has improved a lot, however if we noticed the last game of the Patriots against the Bills, he had 9 rush plays for 34 pass attempts. This shows that sometimes he hasn't been able to find any offensive solutions and that he is obligated to run with the football. This will be a concern for this game, as the Jets are second in the NFL in sacks (31) and first in forced fumbles (13). If the Pats allowed 3 sacks against the Rams, no sacks against the Colts and 1 sack last week against the Bulls, today's challenge will be much harder to pass.
The offense of the Jets is well balanced. Thomas Jones leads the AFC in rushing yards (750), with the Jets being the 9th best rushing team on the league, with 123.4 yards/game. Without Adalius Thomas, the Patriots will struggle a lot on this matchup. The X factor of this game will be between the run defense of the Jets and the RB's of the Pats. The Pats have been using their rushing game in order to win their last game, in fact they have outplayed their opponents on the floor on the last 6 games they've played: +67, +8, +151, +8, +93 and +84 rushing yards than their opponents. But today they will face a top rush defense team. The Jets are the 5th best team on the league in rush defense, with 76.4 rushing yards allowed per game and all the edge the Pats had on their last game is gone on this week's game.
The Jets lost at home against the Pats by 10-19 earlier this season. Even though the Patriots outgained the Jets by just four yards, they took advantage of a Favre interception and a missed field goal by Jay Feely to beat the Jets for the 13th time in the last 16 meetings. This quote from a Jets played defines what this game is all about:
"After that game, it was disappointing, but we knew we had to keep moving on," New York defensive end Shaun Ellis said. "One thing I remember people saying in that locker room after the game was, 'We'll have another shot.' Here's our opportunity, so we have to go out and get a win in their home stadium."
Take the NY Jets in here.

Stawka 5/10

 

[jacques]

Trzeci typek trafiony. Następne na niedziele.

 

[jacques]

NFL Week 11 - 411 Chicago Bears @ 412 Green Bay Packers
Big divisional game today between the Packers and the Bears. The Packers are 4-5 and the Bears 5-4 right now, but this spot is much more favorable to the Packers. This team has been facing strong teams week after week and they are coming to this game with 4 straight covers. Aaron Rodgers has been limited during the season, but for the first time in a while, he was able to practice this week and he will take advantage of the terrible pass defense the Bears have right now. When we see that on the last three games of the Bears, Titans' Collins, Detroit's Orlovsky and Minnesota's Frerotte have combined 879 passing yards and 6 touchdowns, that's terrible news for the Bears, as this team of the Packers in at least one level superior to those teams in their pass offense. I expect Green Bay to come fired up today, as their 4-5 record doesn't represent at all the value of the team. I remember in the games the Packers lost, they led Dallas in the second quarter, led Tampa Bay with less than three minutes to go, were tied with Atlanta in the middle of the fourth quarter, took undefeated Tennessee to overtime and led Minnesota last week with less than three minutes to go, before losing when Mason Crosby missed a last-second FG attempt.
The key of the Bears have been surprisingly the offense, but Kyle Orton got injured and somehow the offensive dynamic of the team was lost. I know he will play today, but the whole dynamic of the team isn't the same from two weeks ago. If we add the fact that two of the three defeats of the Packers last season were against the Bears, we have also in here an huge revenge game for the Packers. Come to this, I expect a huge emotional effort of the Packers and a secure win for them. Take the Packers in here.
Green Bay Packers (-3)

Stawka 5/10

Houston Texans @ 408 Indianapolis Colts
I know it may look like suicide to mention to word under with Houston, after all the Texans are 8-1 Over this season and all their games on the roads have end up being over. However, the spot of this game and the fact we have 50.5 points makes the under be worth a shot. The Colts have been improving during the season and a lot of that has been due to their defense. It's only necessary to see that they have allowed just 15 points to the Patriots and last week, playing on the road, they allowed just 20 points to the Steelers! In that game, the Steelers had just 59 rushing yards, which having in account the level of the run defense of the Colts is a very good number. That can be even more appreciated, if we see for example that the Texans had 156 rushing yards against the Colts in the game at Houston.
"Those guys played well for us last week and they really were the reason we were able to hold (Pittsburgh) to 59 yards (rushing). When they play like that it makes it a lot easier for the linebackers to run."
The Texans lost last week against the Ravens at home due to the turnovers of Rosenfels and also due to the penalties who prevented the team from advancing on the field. However, I expect this game to be also different on that matter. The team won't stop committing penalties because that's impossible, but I expect a different approach of Sage Rosenfels to this game. If you remember, in the game between these two teams at Houston, Rosenfels was having a good performance, until the last 5 minutes of the game, where he committed two huge errors, which resulted in turnovers and the Colts took advantage of that to make one of the biggest comebacks in the history of the NFL. I expect that Rosenfels hasn't forgotten about that game and this will be reflected today. I'm not saying that he will have a great performance, I'm saying that he will play on a very conservative way, with his goal being to try not to screw up today.
The weakest point of both teams in the rush defense, while they have average pass defenses (Colts are 7th with 190.6 yards/game and the Texans are 14th with 198.7 yards/game). In the game between these two teams at Houston, the result was 20-10 at the end of the 3rd quarter and everything was pointing to the game to go under. I've also found a powerful trend for this game, which points to the under: Any team where the total is greater or equal to 49.5, with a good passing team (6.7-7.3 passing yards/attempt) is 23-3 Under since 1983 against a team with an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 passing yards/attempt). So, take the under in here.
Under 50.5 @1.93

Stawka 5/10

 

[jacques]

Dziś 1/2 , łącznie 4/5.

 

[jacques]

Comments: NFL Week 12 - 211 Minnesota Vikings @ 212 Jacksonville Jaguars The Jags are 1-3 on their last 4 games and they are quickly losing every hope of reaching the playoffs this season. They depend a lot from their two RB stars, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor in order to have success and that factor makes the Vikings be a great dog in this game. The Jags were outrushed by their opponents three times this season: -104 yards against Tennessee, -91 yards against Pittsburgh and -91 yards against Cincinnati. Coincidently or not, the team lost those three games and the truth is that they were favored in these three games, so they were all three unexpected losses.
Today they will face the Vikings and we all know the strongest part of the team is the running game in both ways. They are the second best team on the league in run defense, with just 73.9 rushing yards allowed per game and the Jags will have a lot of problems in running the football and edge that they could have for this game completely disappears. The Jags have been a disgrace on their passing game and Garrard is coming from a 13/30 for 135 passing yards performance.
On the other side, the Vikings will naturally use Adrian Peterson as their main offensive weapon, who has missed his goal at Tampa of having 5 consecutive games with +100 rushing yards. However, this defense of the Jags is worse than the Bucs' one, as Jacksonville is just 20th in run defense with 113.2 rushing yards allowed per game.
Minnesota needs to win this game badly, as they are in a division where three teams lead the division with a 5-5 record. The Jags are losing all the motivation they had and against an opponent which will stop their strongest part of their game, I expect a win from the Vikings in here and as they are the underdog of this game, this just gives them even more value. Take Minnesota in here.

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)

Stawka 5/10

New York Jets @ 200 Tennessee Titans I know a lot of people have been killed by trying to guess when the Titans will finally lose in the previous weeks, but the good news is that we won't finally need the Titans to lose a game for them not being able to cover the spread, as the 5.5 points allow the Jets to cover this Sunday, even if they lose the game in a ballgame.
The Titans won last week against the Jags on the road and they are getting a tendency of using their passing game more, instead of their running game, which had been their big offensive threat this season. They had just 58 rushing yards against Chicago and 26 rushing yards against the Jags. This change on the team may cost them big time when they face a top team and that's what the Jets are right now: a top team.
The Jets, just like the Titans, are in a great run right now. They are coming from four wins in a row and they present something which may hurt the Titans: a well balanced offense. Brett Favre is becoming more involved with the receiving corps of the team and this will bring problems to the Titans, who is used to face unidimensional teams.
Kerry Collins is having a phenomenal season with a powerful offensive line. Collins has been sacked just five times. The Jets will bring pressure, however. They have 34 sacks (fourth best in the league). Defensive end Shaun Ellis has seven sacks, although he's been blanked in the past two games. Again, New York's 3-4 scheme could pose some protection issues the Titans will have to work through. The monster-sized Jenkins (6'4, 349 pounds) will do everything he can to mess up plays before they get started. He has 3.5 sacks but usually makes his biggest impact by occupying several blockers, allowing teammates to make tackles.
Another aspect that we can't ignore in this game has to go with the return offensive stats. Both teams are very strong on that, being the 2nd and 3rd on the league. However, the Titans are 31st in kickoff coverage. The Jets' offense is enough to worry about, so the Titans can't afford to let return man Leon Washington burn them like he scorched the Patriots (94-yard return). He's averaging 29.6 yards per return. This will be very important, as it will allow the Jets to begin their drives with a nice field position.
In my opinion, this will be a ballgame. The Titans have been impressive, but the Jets are a team who has been improving week after week. We must not forget that they played last week on Thursday, so they had three more days to prepare for this game and right now every team is fired up to beat the Titans and the Jets may be the team to do that job. Take the Jets in here.

Stawka 5/10

 

[jacques]

Znów 2/2, w sumie 6/7. Koleś w niezłej formie jest ;-) I ja też bo wybieram zawsze nie mając pojęcia o NFL 2 z 3 typów, ten 3 zazwyczaj nie wchodzi ????

 

[jacques]

San Diego - 4.5
Stawka max. bez analizy ;-)

 

[jacques]

Koleś sprzedaje typ roku NFL 10/10 za 50 $ . Niestety nowy miesiąc i skończył się abonament mojego kumpla i nie mam za free ;/ Jest ktoś chętny do zbiórki ? Handicap po 1.90 więc żeby się konkretnie zwróciło 50 baksów to trzeba naprawdę solidną stawkę zagrać czego ja nie preferuje. Ale jakby tak się z 5 osób złożyło to by było fajnie ;-) Gratis jeszcze dwa inne typy. Więcej info na PW jak ktoś chętny

 

[jacques]

Na Superbowl dostałem typ na Pittsburg z handicapem.

 

[jacques]

21.02 NBA
???? Houston - Dallas Typ: 1 @ 1.625
STAWKA : 5/10
Kurs nie wiedzieć czemu taki wysoki. Tzn. wiem czemu (kontuzja McGrady do końca sezonu oraz oddanie Alstona do Orlando) ale kompletnie nie rozumiem. Tmac grał z kontuzją i zabierał grę kolegom, Alston kompletnie nie pasował do tego zespołu. W miejsce tej dwójki zagra dwójka która świetnie prezentowała się w tym sezonie jako zmiennicy (Brooks, Vafer) i spodziewam się że dziś pokażą na co ich stać. Dallas bez Terrego grają przeciętnie. Warto grać bo rzadko kiedy można dostać taki kurs na Rockets u siebie.

 

[jacques]

24.02 NBA
???? Houston - Portland Typ: 1 @ 1.60*
STAWKA : 5/10
Właściwie to mogę powtórzyć to co napisałem parę dni wcześniej. Rockets grają naprawdę bardzo dobrze bez swojego "lidera" - Tmaca. Blazers to trudniejszy rywal niż Mavericks ale mnie ich gra nie przekonuję. "Jadą troszkę na opinii" z początku sezonu i z końca poprzedniego. Na wyjazdach wiedzie im się średnio i z mocniejszymi rywalami jednak przegrywają. Dziś też tak powinno być bo zabraknie Grega Odena. Jak dla mnie bardzo dobry kurs i polecam.
* - w ziemniakach

 

[jacques]

25.02 Liga Mistrzów
Chelsea - Juventus Typ: Alex Del Piero to score @ 3.75
STAWKA : 0.5/10
T rochę szalony typ ale po prostu czuję, że Alex dziś strzeli. Miał dużo czasu do odpoczynku, przygotowywał się specjalnie na ten mecz no i przede wszystkim w meczach o wielką stawkę bierze ciężar gry na siebie. Niekoniecznie musi to być karny lub wolny by strzelił bramkę, w tym roku już "parę" goli strzelił gdy Juve grało z kontry ;-)

 

[jacques]

27.03 NBA
???? Toronto - Oklahoma Typ: Durant powyżej 25.5 @ 1.80
???? Atlanta - Boston Typ: Johnson powyżej 22 @ 1.85
STAWKA : 3/10
Polecam Wam taki dubelek w Tobecie, chyba każdy z nas ma tam konto ;-) Czemu tak ? Durant ma średnia 26 punktów na mecz ale w 2009 średnią oscylującą w granicach 29 punktów na mecz (30.6 w lutym). Naprawdę mocno "kosi". Zwłaszcza przeciwko takim zespołom bez obrony jak Raptors. To koleś który atakuje kosz tylko jak ma taką okazję a Raptors pozwalają na to nagminnie (w jednym z ostatnich meczów dwójka rywali zdobyła po 30 punktów praktycznie na samych wjazdach). Moim zdaniem dziś przerzuci 30 ... Johnson z kolei to "money time player" i w meczach z mocnymi rywalami, zwłaszcza na własnym parkiecie rzuca bardzo dużo. Średnia z ostatnich 3 tygodni prawie 26, dziś spodziewam się też 27-30 punktów z jego strony. Celtowie grają z kontuzjami i ostatnio bardzo słabo jak na nich bronią. Ze stawką nie szaleję ale polecam ;-)

 

[jacques]

29.03 NBA
???? NO Hornets - SA Spurs Typ: Spurs @ 1.80
STAWKA : 3/10
Gospodarze bez 3 kluczowych zawodników. Do kontuzjowanych graczy pierwszej piątki (Stojaković, Chandler) zawieszony za rzuceniem piłką w sędziego James Posey Spurs po raz pierwszy od dawna w najsilniejszym składzie.

 

[jacques]

05.04 Ekstraligia
???? Polonia Bydgoszcz - WTS Wrocław Typ: 1 @ 1.70 betsafe / 1.60 bwin
STAWKA : 8/10
Polonia wraca do Ekstraligii i musi pokazać się z dobrej strony. Budżet klubu jest dopięty tylko do połowy sezonu i za wszelką cenę muszą wygrywać mecze na początku sezonu by przyciągnąć sponsorów (brak strategicznego, 50 % budżetu płaci miasto) i kibiców (wpływy z biletów). Dlatego bardzo mocno są wszyscy nastawieni na ten mecz. Jonsson i Sajfutdinow do tej pory jeździli w różnych imprezach na zapasowym sprzęcie, najlepszy mają "wyjąć z szafy" dopiero na ten mecz. Polacy trenują do tego spotkania cały tydzień, Lindbaeck i Davidsson specjalnie przylecą już w sobotę by też trenować a pomóc w spasowaniu ma im właśnie Jonsson. Polonia w składzie ma 3 Szwedów (w całej kadrze 5), wszyscy się znają od lat i bardzo się lubią także każdy sobie pomaga, bo każdy senior i tak ma zapewniony występ w meczu i każdy pojedzie co najmniej 4 biegi (kontrakty zostały tak podpisane) a wielu zawodników jeździ ze sobą w barwach tych samych drużyn zagranicą a Lindbaeck i Sajfutdinow mają nawet tych samych doradców i tunerów także o występ Szweda jestem spokojny. Być może nawet i tor będzie lekko spreparowany choć nawet bez tego Wrocławianom trudno się będzie spasować, bo ich zawodnicy (Crump, Nicholls) nie nawidzą tego toru. Jędrzejak na Kryterium Asów jeździł beznadziejnie, Jeleniewski to zawodnik tylko wrocławskiego toru na wyjazdach jeździ zazwyczaj na 0. Watt też słabo. W ogóle cały zespół jest nieobjeżdzony (nie jechał praktycznie sparignów) a w jedynym test meczu w Zielonej Górze wręcz się skompromitował. Co więcej od znajomych z Wrocławia dowiedziałem się że trener gości jest w konflikcie ze Scottem Nichollsem który kompletnie olewa sobie przygotowania do ligi.
05.04 1 Liga
???? Start Gniezno - RKM Typ: 1 @ 1.50

STAWKA : 5/10 < tutaj miałobyć 1/10 sorry jak ktoś wtopił więcej

Start ma niezły skład jak na 1 ligę. Ambicję są na 1 czwórkę. RKM liczy tylko na utrzymanie.
???? Stal Rzeszów - Ostrów Typ: 1 @ 1.80

STAWKA : 1/10

Ostrów pojedzie na ten mecz bez Klindta który nie zdążył na samolot. Skład w miarę niezły, na własnym torze mogą powalczyć.

 

[jacques]

14.04 NBA
???? Bucks - Magic Typ: 1 @ 1.60

STAWKA : 8/10
Orlando w meczu w Milwaukee zagra dziś bez 4 graczy podstawowej piątki
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sports_magic/2009/04/dwight-howard-will-sit-this-one-out-as-well-tonight.html
Howard OUT, Gortat w S5.
Do tego Reddick, Alston, TURKOGLU, LEWIS out
Kurs 1.6 niewielki ale do podbicia idealny.

 

[jacques]

14.04 NBA
???? Bucks - Magic Typ: 1 @ 1.60 izzzziiii

STAWKA : 8/10
Orlando w meczu w Milwaukee zagra dziś bez 4 graczy podstawowej piątki
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sports_magic/2009/04/dwight-howard-will-sit-this-one-out-as-well-tonight.html
Howard OUT, Gortat w S5.
Do tego Reddick, Alston, TURKOGLU, LEWIS out
Kurs 1.6 niewielki ale do podbicia idealny.

Dziś będę miał typ po 20