Strange Odds

[sedbo]

Witam.
I want to explain the betting system of my site in short words.
It is really something new, so I hope moderators will not delete my posts.

I'm analyzing odds (not results!) and odds movement by using mathematics. To do this, I'm converting 1x2 odds into ratings. These are ratings of Ekstraklasa and other polish leagues:
http://www.soccer-rating.com/Poland/

Very simple example:
If odds of Manchester United vs. teams like Fulham, Wigan, Sunderland would have been in the past always around @1.20, but in a new match vs. a similar team like Portsmouth they are (mysteriously) @1.60, the system would generate this bet:
Manchester United - Portsmouth Home Win @1.60

... and of course, this would be a good bet. It is strongly based on mathematics. I don't try to predict good bets out of past results, but just by analyzing odds!


If you have further questions about www.soccer-rating.com, just ask it here in this forum. I'm a regular visitor of your forum and will answer here...

 

[esqlap]

po czym poznajesz ktore druzyny sa podobne do siebie?

how do you know that teams are similar together? in your example Fulham and Portsmouth?

 

[sedbo]

All teams get a rating. These ratings are mathematically calculated out of odds.
It has nothing to do with results or league table. It is just based on odds.
If 2 teams have same rating, they have same strength.

If we have odds like
Manchester United - Portsmouth @2.00 @3.25 @3.10

.. then you and me know that these odds are wrong.

But now we have a programm that is doing this job for us.
The programm will say: "Odds are wrong" and it will also deliver a "value number" to compare this with all other 1000 matches from one weekend.

The example if of course exaggerated, but if you put in maybe lower odds (@1.40 or @1.50) or another league, you get the truth.

1) The main idea is to analyse odds and odds movements by using mathematics.
2) The 2nd idea and strategy is to bet on "strange odds".

 

[shotex]

mógłby ktoś przetłumaczyć??:>????

 

[ghs]

mógłby ktoś przetłumaczyć??:>????

To naprawdę w życiu się przydaje.

 

[esqlap]

ok, i have one more question: on this site http://www.soccer-rating.com/Poland/ i see three matches which are "Rating adjustment of more than 20 points, which indicates a very interesting match." and what is a good tip in these matches ? home? away? or draw?

 

[sedbo]

- the team with the star (*) is rated much stronger by bookmakers than in weeks before.
- this means, odds on this team with the star (*) are lower than usual.
- this means, you should consider a bet against the team with the star.

For tomorrow, this would be a bet on Ruch (@4.00).

However, it's not that easy. If you just place these bets, without analyzing the matches, you will be still in loss.
One idea to solve this problem is to wait for dropping odds.

All bets advised are:
- on a team without a star
- and the team has dropping odds

If you browse a country like Poland, the listings don't tell you on which team to bet ... they just tell you, in which game odds are "strange" (odds on the team with the star are lower than usual).

The star can be of course justified ... suspensions, injuries, motivation reasons!!
But in that case, we wouldn't see dropping odds on the team without a star.

 

[esqlap]

ok, now i understand it. thanks for explanation. i will observe this site, and test this tips.

????

 

[sedbo]

Finally, I have a good example from polish leagues to explain the idea of the site.

We have this match from 3rd league identified as "strange odds game":
2009-04-25 Gawin Królewska Wola/Ślęza Wrocław - Victoria Koronowo 1.70 3.50 3.90 strange odds!

I'm doing my homework now. I look at table and I can see a much better Gawin side than Koronowo.
Than I try to get further information and I discover that there have been some changes for Gawin in winter break. They lost some players, changed their name to Ślęza Wrocław and so on.

That means, a blind bet on Gawin/Ślęza is not a good idea.
But it is surely very difficult for bookies to rate this team corretly. Probably there is value in this game ... on Ślęza or even on Koronowo, that depends on new players of Ślęza .

The strategy of soccer-rating.com is to wait for dropping odds in this case and follow the tendency. If you think about it, it's a very good idea. We wait for strange odds (as in this case ... odds are strange!) and follow dropping odds = profit.