Stawka 5/10New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is suffering from something similar the Titans are also having: they are being completely underrated by the public and the fact they are just -1 on this game means without the traditional home advantage (-3 points), the Falcons would actually be an underdog this week. Atlanta has been on-fire at home this season by going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS, while New Orleans is still winless on the road this season (losses to Washington, Denver and Carolina).
If you remember, the Falcons had an amazing performance last season at Oakland, where they completely shutdown the Raiders by having more than 300 total yards at halftime, while the Raiders had negative yards (-2)! And that will be the key for this game. The Falcons is well balanced and has a great defense, something the Saints lack. And as much their QB star Drew Brees can do, the team can't defend and they pay the price for that. I remember the Saints have allowed more than 30 points in three of their last four games and five of their last seven games!
The Falcons have lost their two games against the Saints last season, but this season with QB Matt Ryan they are a much better team and they will be looking revenge this week. With them being just a marginal favorite on this week, I think we have great value in Atlanta. Take Atlanta in here.
Atlanta Falcons (-1) @1.91 on Pinnacle
Stawka 5/10Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
These two teams will see their strongest parts of their game be opposed by the weakest parts of their opponents today and when that happens, the offense of both teams will have a great shot of being effective today and that's what I expect in here. The Packers have failed to slow down every opponent with a capable running offense and they have allowed 187, 219, 178, 176, 113 and 178 rushing yards this season. They have only been able to stop the rushing offense of Detroit (49 yards) and Indianapolis (73 yards), easily the league's worst running offenses.
On this game they will face the Vikings of Adrian Peterson, who is coming to this game with a three game sequence always having more than 100 yards and he will cause a lot of problems to the Packers today. Besides that, QB Gus Frerrote is getting more adapted to the team and he has thrown 5 TD passes in their last two games, leading the team to 69 points. Bernard Berrian is a downfield threat and together with Peterson, the Vikings will have a capable offense.
On the other side, the Packers are coming from a very physical and tough game against the Titans, which went to overtime. Naturally, as they were facing one of the best defensive teams of the league, the Packers and Aaron Rodgers struggled on that game, but today the scenario will be much different. The pass defense of the Vikings is the weakest part of the team and it can't be compared to the one of the Titans. But that area has become even more problematic for the Vikings this season, when star pass rusher Jared Allen is expected to miss the game with a shoulder injury. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver had 215 yards last week and they have conditions to do even better this season. Green Bay is 10-2 Over after one or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. I expect an high scoring game in here. Take the over.
Over 44,5 @1.98 on Pinnacle
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